Predict.fun — BNB Chain prediction market with yield bearing position

1. Goal: Predict.fun is building a capital-efficient prediction market where collateral can earn yield while positions remain open. It now covers politics, sports, crypto and short-duration stock/crypto markets. The product has already processed $6B+ cumulative volume and is Binance’s official prediction-market provider.

2. Tokenomics / Airdrop: No official supply, ticker, allocation or vesting has been published yet. Predict Points (PP) are earned through trading, liquidity provision and holding positions. For valuation only, assume 390M PP + 8% of token supply allocated to points holders(most possibly). → If supply = 1B tokens, airdrop pool = 80M tokens → ~0.205 tokens per PP → At $500M FDV ≈ $0.103/PP → At $800M FDV ≈ $0.164/PP → At $1B FDV ≈ $0.205/PP 8% is our assumption, NOT confirmed. Polymarket is valuing Predict at around 800 to 1bfdv at tge.

3. TGE / Unlocks: Founder dingaling has now said “weeks, not months” after Predict teased the token launch, so TGE appears close. However, supply, snapshot, points conversion and team/investor cliffs remain unknown and calculations based on estimates.

4. Team + backing: Founder Ding (dingaling). Predict was backed by YZi Labs, followed by a strategic round with YZi Labs + Susquehanna Crypto; Susquehanna also provides liquidity. Predict acquired Probable in March 2026.Founder previous project is pancakeswap,so expect it to be binance positioning in prediction markets.

5. Tech / verification: Live BNB Chain contracts, public SDK/API, Chainlink-powered fast markets and yield-bearing collateral via Venus.

6. Key risks: PP→token conversion could disappoint; points farming may create immediate TGE sell pressure; dependence on BNB/Binance distribution; oracle/resolution and smart-contract risk particularly from Venus ; heavy competition from Polymarket/Kalshi and prediction marketrs can be winner takes all.

Disclosure: Have few points on predict but no allocations or paid deals.