Variational ($VAR) — Pre-TGE Dossier: the day-365 unlock ambiguity

TL;DR

• Pre-TGE perps protocol on Arbitrum. TGE "Q4 2026", no date. No public sale / ICO; private VC only (seed $10.3M; $50M Series A reported).
• 32% airdrop is 100% unlocked at TGE → high day-1 float, all held by points farmers.
• The 50% team+investor vesting text supports two readings. One implies a +46% float increase overnight on day 365.
• "100% buy-and-burn" is funded by ~20% of spreads, a rate the team says can change. Full dossier PDF attached. All sources are primary docs / on-chain unless marked.

1. What it builds

Omni = zero-fee perps app (mainnet in private beta). No order book: a single in-house vault, OLP, quotes and takes every trade and hedges net exposure on external venues. That's how it lists ~500 crypto + TradFi markets with zero fees. The protocol takes 20% of spreads paid to OLP (docs: "still being tested"). https://docs.variational.io/omni/the-omni-liquidity-provider-olp

2. Tokenomics (official $VAR page)

• Genesis 32%: airdrop by points, 100% unlocked at TGE
• Ecosystem Reserve 18%: Foundation's discretion, no schedule
• Team & Investors 50%: locked 12m after TGE, then "unlocking over a minimum of three years"
• Undisclosed: total supply, FDV, TGE date, team/investor split https://docs.variational.io/token/usdvar

Points: 3M retro (Dec 2025) + 150k/week until TGE → ~11M points (my estimate). Implied value/point = 32% × FDV / 11M → ~$15 / $29 / $87 at $0.5B / $1B / $3B FDV (my scenarios, not project data). https://docs.variational.io/omni/rewards/points

3. Unlock / dilution model

"Locked 12m, then unlocking over min. 3 years" can mean: A) 12m lock, then 36m linear → no lump, ~1.39% of supply/month B) 3y vest with 1y cliff → 16.7% of supply unlocks on day 365 (Reserve assumed linear over 48m in both.)

Circulating % → TGE / m12 / m24 / m36 A: 32 / 36.5 / 57.7 / 78.8 B: 32 / 53.2 / 74.3 / 95.5

Buyback stress test (Read A, $1B FDV): ~$17.6M/month of new supply from m12. Absorbing it by buyback needs ~$88M/month of spreads at the 20% take rate. Upper bound, but burn ≠ dilution offset.

4. Team verification

✅ Verifiable: named founders (Lucas Schuermann, Edward Yu) linked from docs; Qu Capital → DCG acquisition → Genesis Trading history; Zellic (Dec 24) + Spearbit (Mar 25) audits; seed round linked from docs; 4 mainnet contracts published. ⚠️ Unverified: "ex-Jane Street/Google/Meta" team (no names); audits predate the 2026 TradFi expansion; Series A has press coverage only; core protocol + OLP are closed-source (public GitHub = SDK only, not linked from docs). https://docs.variational.io/getting-started/core-contributors https://docs.variational.io/technical-documentation/audits

5. Key risks

• Counterparty: OLP (team-seeded) is the counterparty to every trade; docs say OLP insolvency → user PnL becomes bad debt.
• Governance: 18% discretionary reserve; points editable "at sole discretion".
• Incentives: zero fees + points → volume may leave after TGE.
• Execution: TGE already slipped Q3 → Q4.
• Legal: US/Canada/Taiwan restricted; TradFi + pre-IPO perps add regulatory exposure.

6. Disclosure

No $VAR (not issued), no Variational points, no paid relationship with the project or its investors. Not investment advice.

Open item: I couldn't confirm whether the treasury (0x5e91b40467fb8902c46a7b6cb90482363188d645) is a multisig, or which contracts are upgradeable. If you've checked on Arbiscan, please share.

Sources

Contracts: https://docs.variational.io/technical-documentation/mainnet-contracts Restricted persons: https://docs.variational.io/legal/restricted-persons Earlier token page (the old "min. 30% of revenue" wording): https://docs.variational.io/variational-protocol/usdvar-token Tokenomics announcement: https://x.com/variational_io/status/2102929439063765192 GitHub: https://github.com/variational-research

Challenge me on: (1) whether Read A or B is correct, (2) my ~11M points estimate, (3) whether a VC-funded project fits "pre-raise".