Project Research Dossier — Variational ($VAR)

Question: can day-one float survive with 68% withheld and no published total? Constraint: no public raise, no active ICO/TGE — genesis is a zero-cost airdrop, funding is private VC; docs list mainnet and launch as "Undated Roadmap Items". Goal: RFQ derivatives, not an order book — its own market maker (OLP) is sole counterparty on every trade. Omni (zero-fee perps, ~500 markets) + Pro (institutional OTC), private beta. https://docs.variational.io/token/usdvar Tokenomics: 32% genesis airdrop fully unlocked at TGE; 18% ecosystem undated, Foundation discretion; 50% team+investors, 12mo cliff then >=3yr linear. Buyback is intent not contract. Supply NOT published -> per-point value uncomputable; FDV/MC 3.12x. Ladder: 32% -> 33.4% (m13) -> 50.1% (m24) -> 82% (m48) — the danger is not a cliff dump, it is that all day-one float is free. On-chain (self-read, block 512088219): >=181,951 PoolCreated since 30 Jan 2025, all from one creatorAddress: 0x74bb...f2cd, which docs call the "Core OLP Vault" and "a smart contract". eth_getCode: 0 bytes — an EOA holding $15.83M USDC. Treasury 0x5e91...d645: also an EOA. Team: named, traceable — Schuermann / Yu (ex-Genesis, VP Eng / VP Quant). Docs say "$10M" raised; press has a $50M Dragonfly-led Series A the docs never mention. GitHub org: 0 public repos. Audits: Zellic Dec 2024 = web app only. Cantina/Spearbit Feb 2026 = contracts: 2 High Risk, both "Acknowledged", neither resolved — deploy() has no access control, "anyone can frontrun" it. Same path as the EOA above. Risks: OLP solvency is the whole revenue base; docs admit "a risk that OLP loses money". US+CA excluded while a Cayman entity lists pre-IPO perps. Rating: constraint pass, dilution modeling partial — schedule computable in %, value not. Farm the points; don't size a bag on undisclosed supply. Disclosure: no position ($VAR does not exist). Legion Republic research quest (reward if approved). Not an offer.