Project Research Dossier: Polymarket (pre-TGE)

Picking Polymarket because it's the most-sourced pre-TGE name I could find — everything below maps to primary sources, and the honest finding is how much is not verifiable yet.

What it is. Prediction market platform: trade on event outcomes, USDC-settled on Polygon, order book matching on top of a conditional-token framework. UI and core tooling are open source (github.com/Polymarket), docs are public. That's verifiable today.

Funding (verifiable). Private rounds only — no public sale has ever been held, which is what makes it eligible here. Rounds and investors are documented in official announcements (Series B led by General Catalyst, later rounds widely reported at ~$1B+ valuations). Exact terms of the latest round are not fully public, so I treat valuation figures as reported, not confirmed.

Tokenomics / unlock / dilution — the real finding. No token has been announced, so there is no allocation table, vesting schedule, or supply to model. For a due-diligence dossier that's the headline: every "POLY airdrop" claim circulating is speculation; nothing on-chain or in official docs commits to a token, an allocation, or a timeline. Anyone modeling this project pre-TGE is modeling an unknown supply — plan position size accordingly.

Key risks. (1) Regulatory — settled with CFTC in 2022 over prior activity; US access has been restricted since, and prediction markets remain a live regulatory topic. (2) Oracle risk — market resolution relies on UMA disputes, which have historically been contested on edge cases. (3) No token plan published — any airdrop expectation could be wrong in either direction. (4) Competition — a growing field of rivals (including VistaPex-style up/down markets) is compressing odds margins.

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