[Project Research Dossier] Apyx (APYX) – Pre-TGE: is year-1 dilution priced in?

Project Research Dossier — Apyx (APYX) · HKTG squad (lieum141 + fischer2k1) · checked 5 Oct 2026 · primary sources only

Question: unlocked supply goes from ~22% at TGE to ~47% at month 12. Is that dilution priced in at the $300M strategic-round valuation?

Constraint check: pass. No public sale/ICO/IDO. Seed ($70M val.) + strategic ($300M val.) were private, $3M total (blog.apyx.fi/apyx-closes-300m-raise). TGE set for 13 Oct was postponed with no new date on 23 Sep (blog.apyx.fi/apyx-tge-update). No APYX contract in docs.apyx.fi/resources/smart-contract-addresses.

Goal: onchain dollars backed by income-producing RWAs. apxUSD is backed mainly by DAT preferred equity (currently mostly Strategy's STRC/STRCx) plus cash and T-bills; apyUSD is staked apxUSD and earns the dividends; aptUSD is Treasury-backed. Live on Ethereum since Feb 2026 (~302M apxUSD). Monthly reserve attestation by Wolf & Co. APYX governs and is designed to receive 50% of monthly reserve growth.

Tokenomics (official table, docs.apyx.fi/product-overview/apyx): 100M fixed, no emissions. • Community 35% (airdrop 11% unlocked at TGE, rest 36m linear) • Core Team 30% (12m cliff → 1/3, then 24m) • Foundation 16.3% (6m cliff → 1/8, then 42m) • Growth 10% (unlocked, Apyx-held) • DAT 5% (6m cliff → 1/6, then 30m) • Investors 3.7% (1/3 at TGE, rest 36m)

Unlocked supply: M0 22.2% → M6 29.5% → M12 46.8% → M24 71.4% → M36 95.9% → M48 100%. The M12 team cliff = 10% of supply in one day ≈ 82% of the TGE public float (~12.2%). After that, ~2.05% of supply unlocks per month until M36.

Full model, team verification, risks and sources are in the replies below 👇

Dilution: what changes the picture • Float quality: Growth (10%), Foundation (16.3%) and DAT (5%) = 31.3% sits with the issuer side. Real float depends on how fast Apyx deploys it, and no schedule for that is published. • Airdrop raised: Season 2 went from 6% to 9% on 23 Sep (airdrop now 14%, fully unlocked at TGE). If that comes out of Community, TGE public float is ~15.2% and M12 unlocked is ~48.8%. • Absorption: xAPYX buys APYX with revenue and yAPYX pays apxUSD, both with a 7-day cooldown. Supply is fixed, so staking yield is real revenue and not inflation. But it is only as big as reserve growth, and the June STRC drawdown (STRC $90.38, apxUSD $0.90 on secondary markets) showed reserve growth can go negative (blog.apyx.fi/post-mortem). • FDV: $300M strategic valuation ≈ $3.00/APYX, so the TGE public float is ≈ $37–46M. If the 3.7% Investors bucket = the $3M rounds (an assumption), blended entry FDV ≈ $81M.

Team: verifiable vs marketing ✅ The Zellic audit is "prepared for" Dawson Reid, Joseph Onorati, Parker White and John Han. Onorati, White and Han are the CEO, COO/CIO and CFO of Nasdaq-listed DeFi Development Corp (ex-Kraken), and Apyx docs say "supported by the team behind DFDV". GitHub apyx-labs/evm-contracts: top committer "ddaws" (display name Dawson, 236 commits). DFDV's 8-K of 30 Mar 2026 discloses a strategic investment in Apyx. ⚠️ No Apyx page names the team. "Zero venture capital" sits next to a $3M strategic/angel raise. "Team vests over four years" (docs/blog) contradicts the 36-month table. "No private investor unlocks" (Pips docs) contradicts Investors 3.7% with 1/3 at TGE.

Key risks • Collateral concentrated in one issuer: STRC $66.4M + STRCx $102.1M, SATA $0 (Wolf & Co, 31 Aug 2026). No fixed 1:1 peg. • Technical: NAV pricing-feed bug and lagging v1 oracle in June; upgradeable proxies (7-day delay); no audit yet for the APYX token, vaults or airdrop contracts. (Stablecoin side: Zellic, Certora, 2× Quantstamp, Halborn — docs.apyx.fi/resources/audits.) • Ops: manual multisig minting; admin 4-of-6; KYC-gated redemption on TradFi rails; apyUSD exit takes 3–20 days. • Execution: TGE moved beyond 13 Oct with no new date; Apyx says it will first build V1 of a multi-issuer RWA platform. • Legal / related party: BVI operator; US/EU/UK/CA restricted; 5% reserved for a possible APYX treasury company next to a listed sister company.

Verdict: Product 4/5 · Transparency 3/5 · Token design 2.5/5 → watchlist. What would change it: the full unlock schedule and vesting contracts promised "before TGE", one consistent vesting/investor statement, an APYX/vault audit, and attestations covering cash + T-bills.

Sources: docs.apyx.fi/product-overview/apyx · blog.apyx.fi/apyx-tokenomics · blog.apyx.fi/apyx-tge-update · blog.apyx.fi/apyx-closes-300m-raise · docs.apyx.fi/resources/audits · docs.apyx.fi/resources/smart-contract-addresses · github.com/apyx-labs/evm-contracts · docs.apyx.fi/collateral-and-custody/third-party-attestation · blog.apyx.fi/post-mortem · etherscan.io/address/0x98A878b1Cd98131B271883B390f68D2c90674665

Disclosure: no APYX/apxUSD/apyUSD position, not a Pips participant, no compensation from Apyx. Written for the Legion Republic Eastern Campaigns quest (VP reward). NFA. Challenge any number — happy to defend the model. The PDF version goes to our squad report.