Arc (Circle) / ARC — pre-TGE dossier: strong network, token not priceable yet

Q: Is ARC's dilution risk knowable today?

What it is: Circle's EVM L1 for stablecoin finance. USDC is gas (~$0.001/transfer target), Malachite BFT + Reth, sub-second finality. Mainnet live Sep 16 with 11 permissioned validators (BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Visa, Mastercard...). PoA now, PoS toward 2027.

Tokenomics (whitepaper, May 2026):

• 10B supply: Ecosystem 60% / Circle 25% / Reserve 15%
• $222M institutional presale at $3B FDV -> implied $0.30, ~740M ARC (7.4%) (my calc)
• ~2-3%/yr inflation, decaying; fees paid in USDC get converted to ARC, part burned (split not specified)
• Vesting: NOT published yet ("coming months")

On-chain (explorer.arc.io): 10B ARC minted, 14 holders, ~99.9% in 11 unlabeled wallets (15/15/13.65/9.9/8.1/5x7.65%). You can't map wallets to buckets from public data. Circle says the mint is not a commitment to launch.

Dilution math (illustrative): 1% unlock = 100M ARC = ~$30M at $0.30. Inflation = 200-300M ARC/yr. A 10% launch float would mean ~$300M circ vs $3B FDV (10x gap).

Risks: unpublished unlocks (~93% issuer-linked), Circle controls upgrades and validators, users never need ARC to transact, may never launch, no public audit of arc-node found.

Stance: watch, don't size until vesting, launch float and burn split are published.

Sources: arc.io/blog/introducing-the-arc-token-whitepaper | circle.com/pressroom (Q1'26 results, mainnet launch) | docs.arc.io | github.com/circlefin/arc-node | explorer.arc.io/token/0xA12Cd81d0f9988E3d60c4B6a0D52D368Ef3c788d Disclosure: no ARC position (not available). Written for a Republic quest (VP). NFA. Full PDF attached.

Follow-up on the obvious pushback: "why not just use the $3B presale FDV as fair value?" FDV only tells you what one buyer paid for the whole supply, not how much hits the market or when. Circulating is ~0 and vesting is unpublished, so the same $3B could mean a 7% float with a 12-month cliff or 30% liquid on day one. Totally different trades. Until vesting and launch float are out, I'd treat $3B as a ceiling reference, not fair value.